As we enter 2026 – and next November’s critical midterms, the off-year contests in New Jersey, Virginia, and Tennessee give Democrats reason for optimism.
Votes for candidates in any year can come from only three sources: Fellow partisans, independents, and defectors from the other party. In Virginia and New Jersey, Democrats essentially held serve while Republicans hemorrhaged support among independents – and their own ranks as well.
Democratic Party voters overwhelmingly supported Mikie Sherrill and Abigail Spanberger in the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races, while 5% (Virginia) and 4% (New Jersey) of Republicans defected to the Democratic candidate, according to YouGov polling. Meanwhile, independents in both states voted Democratic with Sherrill winning them 48-41 over Jack Ciattarelli, while Spanberger bested Winsome Earle-Sears 56-37 among independents.
What caused Republicans to defect?
First, moderate Republicans in both states were more likely to cross party lines than their conservative fellow partisans. This dynamic is hardly counterintuitive, but it contains clues about the type of candidates Republicans may want to field in swing congressional districts in 2026. In New Jersey, 12% of moderate Republicans defected to the Democrats, compared to 2% of conservatives. In Virginia the numbers were nearly the same.
Second, if voters thought the country was on the wrong track they were more likely to vote Democratic than before. In Virginia 17% of Republicans thought the country was on the wrong track – and 23% of them broke ranks. (The comparable numbers for New Jersey are: 20% wrong track, with 16% defecting.
Independents more than Republicans in both states believe the United States is on the wrong track – over 60%. And they took out their fears on the GOP. Viginia independents who think the country is off track voted a stunning 85% for Spanberger. In Jersey the number was also huge: 73%. To emphasize: most independents think the country is on the wrong path and they voted overwhelmingly Democratic.
Another way to look at the data is to compare how people voted in the 2024 presidential race with how they voted in the 2025 elections. Independents who voted for Trump were more likely to switch their vote than Republican Trump supporters. In Virginia, 6% of independent Trump voters switched in 2025, while in New Jersey 3% switched. Add this cohort of the disaffected to the Republicans who switched, plus the Democrats who were fired up to back their party in 2025, and you have the makings of a substantial Democratic Party regeneration.
One clear implication here is that President Trump can no longer escape judgment by blaming Joe Biden and Democrats for the state of the economy. Whether fair or not, it’s Trump’s economy now, and he and Republicans are going to be held accountable by voters.
Despite all the frenzied activity surrounding the special election in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, the election returns went according to form. Both sides can see the results as a half-full glass. Republicans can take solace that their candidate, military veteran Matt Van Epps, defeated progressive activist Aftyn Behn by a comfortable 9% margin.
Yet, Democrats can take heart that this race was unwinnable, and their candidate cut the GOP margin there nearly in half (Trump won the district by 22 points last year). In addition, some of the same patterns emerged in Tennessee that were present in New Jersey and Virginia.
Nearly one in five Republicans in the district believe the country is moving in the wrong direction – and 18% of them voted for Behn. Also, as in Virginia and Tennessee, moderate Republicans switched horses, voting Democratic at higher rates than conservative Republicans. And, as in the other two elections, most Tennessee independents say America is heading in the wrong direction – and voted accordingly.
These election results are consistent with the most recent YouGov/Economist poll, which shows 59% of Americans believing the country is on the wrong track. Of that number, 60% say they will vote Democratic in the 2026 election. About one-quarter of Republicans say the country is on the wrong track, while 68% percent of independents say the country is on the wrong track.
David Brady
Meanwhile, Democrats and independents who voted for the Democratic ticket of Kamala Harris and Tim Walz in 2024 remain on board and are poised to vote for Democratic congressional candidates in 2026: Less than 2% of Democrats say they are planning to defect, compared to 4% percent of Republicans who supported Trump and JD Vance 11 months ago. Add to the mix the 18% of Trump independents who say they are switching, and you have a decidedly uphill landscape for the GOP next year.
In sum, Americans do not see the country as being on the right track and in the three states – one blue, one red, and one purple – they are holding Republicans responsible. Without some major turnaround these numbers do not bode well for the Republicans keeping the House in the looming midterms.
David Brady is the Davies Family Senior Fellow, Emeritus at the Hoover Institution and the Bowen H. and Janice Arthur McCoy Professor of Political Science in the Stanford Graduate School of Business.
