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U.S. Rep. Jasmine Crockett‘s initial commanding lead in early polling in the U.S. Senate primary election has reversed, as a new poll of likely Democratic voters shows her behind her opponent, Texas State Rep. James Talarico.
According to the Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey, Crockett is 9 points behind Talarico, 47% to 38%, with less than two months before the March 3 primary elections. However, 15% remain undecided, leaving the race open to either candidate.
The poll is based on a sample size of only 413 likely Democratic voters, and among total registered Texas voters surveyed (1,165), 12.3% are Black and 22.3% are Hispanic or Latino.
The demographic breakdown of Crockett’s support shows she is performing best among Black voters, with 80% backing the Texas congresswoman.
According to the Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media poll, Talarico is performing better with white voters (57%) and Hispanic voters (59%) than Crockett.
“Men also break for Talarico 52% to 30%, while women are about evenly split between the two Democrats, 44% for Talarico and 43% for Crockett,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.
Crockett has telegraphed her path to victory in both the primary and, if she advances, the general election: it lies in turning out nontraditional voters, including expanding the electorate of Black voters.
“The numbers are clear that we can win. Texas is a nonvoting state. We are one of the lowest-voter-turnout states in the entire country, with only…a little bit more than 50% of people turning out to vote. We are also a majority-minority state,” Crockett said on “The View.” She also noted that the Lone Star State is comprised of 4 million Black people, explaining, “We have more African-Americans in the state of Texas than any other state.”
Jamarr Brown, former executive director of the Texas Democratic Party, told theGrio that Crockett’s strong support among Black voters is a “good indicator” that the party’s “base” will turn out for her.
“We know that in the past few election cycles, white and Latino voters have trended Republican in the end, but those who are voting in the Democratic Party will give Congresswoman Crockett a chance to really talk about her record, to talk about her experience, to talk about what she wants to do,” said Brown.
The Democratic strategist also cautioned against reading too much into the recent poll, given the “very small” sample of unlikely voters.
“Congresswoman Crockett and Representative Talarico have both indicated that they want to turn out new voters. And so when you complete or conduct polls such as this one…it’s likely votes; these are people who are known to vote in Democratic primaries, one or two or three of the past few Democratic primaries in the state.”
He added, “This poll also doesn’t take into account the new voters that the congresswoman has said she’s engaging with as she’s traveling.”
Crockett or Talarico will face the Republican nominee on Nov. 5 for the U.S. Senate seat in Texas, a seat that has not been held by a Democrat since 1993. If victorious, Crockett would make history as the first Black woman elected to the U.S. Senate from Texas.
