Big picture – Can India close out series in Lucknow?
If this tour followed the points system from the women’s Ashes – four points for a Test win and two for winning limited-overs games –
South Africa would be leading
India by 12 points to eight. If we look at it like that, while one win in the two coming matches would be enough for India to win this T20I series, they would really want to win 4-1 to draw some kind of parity in this tour after losing the Tests 2-0.
If T20s weren’t a fickle format, you’d say 4-1 is a fitting result. India have their game almost sorted with only small issues here and there, while South Africa keep ringing in changes in order to still figure out the ideal structure for their limited-overs teams.
A win in Lucknow or Ahmedabad will take India’s unbeaten streak in T20I series to 14; yet the meltdown at the one loss
in New Chandigarh, the debates around
Shubman Gill‘s place and
Suryakumar Yadav‘s form, tell you the pressure of expectation India have to live with in this format.
If South Africa can somehow win in Lucknow and force a decider, that pressure will grow tenfold. Can South Africa use the relative freedom they can play with to their advantage?
India WLWWW (last five completed T20Is, most recent first)
South Africa LWLLL
In the spotlight – Arshdeep Singh and Reeza Hendricks
Ten men have opened in 80 or more T20Is. Among them, only Uganda’s Simon Ssesazi has a poorer strike rate than that of
Reeza Hendricks, who has scored a three-ball duck and 8 off 10 in this series so far. In 15 innings against India, he has got to 50 only once and has struck at 118.8. He will be under pressure especially when facing
Arshdeep Singh, who worked him over in the last T20I. India’s leading wicket-taker in the format and in the powerplays will look to repeat his early strikes to put South Africa under pressure early. If they can get the better of him, as they did in New Chandigarh, South Africa stand a good chance of competing.
Team news – Jasprit Bumrah unlikely
India are unlikely to get Jasprit Bumrah back for this game while the
unwell Axar Patel has been ruled out of the rest of the series. So the XI is likely to be the same as the last game.
India (probable) 1 Abhishek Sharma, 2 Shubman Gill, 3 Suryakumar Yadav (capt.), 4 Tilak Varma, 5 Jitesh Sharma (wk), 6 Hardik Pandya, 7 Shivam Dube, 8 Harshit Rana, 9 Arshdeep Singh, 10 Kuldeep Yadav, 11 Varun Chakravarthy
It has been tough to get a handle on what changes South Africa make to their white-ball XIs and the reason for said changes. Lucknow will be no different.
South Africa (probable) 1 Quinton de Kock (wk), 2 Reeza Hendricks, 3 Aiden Markram (capt.), 4 Dewald Brevis, 5 David Miller, 6 Donovan Ferreira, 7 Marco Jansen, 8 Corbin Bosch, 9 George Linde/Keshav Maharaj/Anrich Nortje, 10 Lungi Ngidi, 11 Ottneil Baartman
Pitch and conditions – Not as cold than Dharamsala
While still cold, Lucknow won’t be as chilly as
Dharamsala. The temperatures are likely to stick to the 10s, which still makes it difficult to prepare a spin-friendly pitch. During the summer in the IPL, Lucknow has emerged as one of the grounds where you can hope to defend totals – 8-11 is a respectable record for sides batting first in night games – but in the winter, there should be a lot of dew, forcing teams to choose to chase.
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